Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Lessons From The Past

If you're not practicing the habit of reviewing previous trades, price patterns, etc you are hindering your trading. By developing this habit you'll start to pick up on the nuances in your methodology. The following is such an example of a nuance in the forecast...

REVISITING THE PAST

A few weeks ago - December 17, 2009 to be precise - I came across the following scenario whereby the scaling of the 'regular' forecast seemed to be 'off' as of the close of that day (i.e. the fit was not good). It turns out it was 'off' for a reason - namely, that the 'What If' chart had started to take effect. Hopefully that makes sense.


Intraday ES Forecast - December 17, 2009 ('What If' chart)


As you can see, the price action the very next day (December 18, 2009) matched both the scaling and direction of the 'What If' chart very well.

Today we're seeing something very similar. Below is the 'regular' forecast:

Intraday ES Forecast


And here is the 'What If' chart:

Intraday ES Forecast - 'What If'


If the same pattern is to repeat itself going into tomorrow we would see:

  • A sell off to ES 1075
  • A strong rebound back to ES 1100

It will be interesting to see if this unfolds.


GOLD/SILVER RATIO

The Gold/Silver ratio is on a MASSIVE sell alert having now breached the 65 resistance area so holding a core short position continues to be prudent trading.

GLD/SLV Ratio (Intraday)


GLD/SLV Ratio (Daily)


Here is Bob Hoye talking about the GOLD/SILVER ratio as well as various other topics - a must listen indeed: HERE

blog comments powered by Disqus