Here is a quick look at what I expect next week. Keep an eye out for the jobs report on Friday! If the forecast is correct we'll see a massive move.
Intraday ES Forecast
I hope you have a GREAT New Years!
See you on Monday!
AMBG Trading
Thursday, December 31, 2009
HAPPY NEW YEARS!
I know the blog has been awfully quiet but I am around!
Here is a quick look at what I expect next week. Keep an eye out for the jobs report on Friday! If the forecast is correct we'll see a massive move.
Intraday ES Forecast
I hope you have a GREAT New Years!
See you on Monday!
Here is a quick look at what I expect next week. Keep an eye out for the jobs report on Friday! If the forecast is correct we'll see a massive move.
Intraday ES Forecast
I hope you have a GREAT New Years!
See you on Monday!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
Update
There is absolutely nothing to post about these days so things will be very quiet until the new-year. Here is the updated forecast.
Intraday ES Forecast
While the forecast does say we correct over the next week or so, I highly doubt institutions will be selling. For this reason, I suspect the 'What If' chart could unfold...
Intraday ES Chart ('What If' scenario)
I shorted the close but will be covering on any weakness tomorrow. If we move further down I honestly don't give a you-know-what. There are ZERO signs of weakness at the moment.
Until the new-year, I suspect there is almost a zero chance of a correction.
I'm going back to my mulled wine now.
Oh by the way, here is a great article from ZeroHedge. I have never been a proponent of manipulation of the equity markets but data like this is striking to say the least!
Link HERE.
Intraday ES Forecast
While the forecast does say we correct over the next week or so, I highly doubt institutions will be selling. For this reason, I suspect the 'What If' chart could unfold...
Intraday ES Chart ('What If' scenario)
I shorted the close but will be covering on any weakness tomorrow. If we move further down I honestly don't give a you-know-what. There are ZERO signs of weakness at the moment.
Until the new-year, I suspect there is almost a zero chance of a correction.
I'm going back to my mulled wine now.
Oh by the way, here is a great article from ZeroHedge. I have never been a proponent of manipulation of the equity markets but data like this is striking to say the least!
Link HERE.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
3 Days And Counting
As we near the 'big day' things will die down considerably as you can appreciate. I suspect I will be significantly refraining myself from taking unnecessary gambles (ahem...trades) in the market until volume picks up again in the new-year. If there is no edge, there is no trade.
Here is the updated forecast, however, I cannot take anything very seriously over the next 1-2 weeks so I am not making any predictions other than I think ES 1115 holds. My most bullish target would be ES 1120.
Intraday ES Forecast
Next year is going to be very exciting so take the time to relax, drink 1 or 5 egg nogs and mentally prepare yourself for some action in 2010!
Here is the updated forecast, however, I cannot take anything very seriously over the next 1-2 weeks so I am not making any predictions other than I think ES 1115 holds. My most bullish target would be ES 1120.
Intraday ES Forecast
Next year is going to be very exciting so take the time to relax, drink 1 or 5 egg nogs and mentally prepare yourself for some action in 2010!
Monday, December 21, 2009
Friday, December 18, 2009
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Three Wise Moves
The more we move into year-end, the more comfortable I am deciding what's going to happen in 2010.
I've mentioned previously that the main move in 2010 will be HUGE. The key is to determine its direction.
To this end I want to narrow down what I think (in general terms) are the final moves before we find out which direction 2010 will take us, so here goes....
MOVE!
Move 1: A trend between 12/18 - 12/28.
Move 2: A trend 1/1/10 into January/February 2010
Move 3: A trend January/February - August/September 2010
Each of these trends will be alternating meaning we either get the following:
Visually, it looks like this:
SPX (Daily)
For those of you ahead of the curve, this means the direction of the move between 12/18 and 12/28 will - to my mind - determine where we go in 2010. As always I could be wrong but that is my inclination at the moment.
I've mentioned previously that the main move in 2010 will be HUGE. The key is to determine its direction.
To this end I want to narrow down what I think (in general terms) are the final moves before we find out which direction 2010 will take us, so here goes....
MOVE!
Move 1: A trend between 12/18 - 12/28.
Move 2: A trend 1/1/10 into January/February 2010
Move 3: A trend January/February - August/September 2010
Each of these trends will be alternating meaning we either get the following:
- An UP-DOWN-UP move, or
- A DOWN-UP-DOWN move
Visually, it looks like this:
SPX (Daily)
For those of you ahead of the curve, this means the direction of the move between 12/18 and 12/28 will - to my mind - determine where we go in 2010. As always I could be wrong but that is my inclination at the moment.
Learn From Your Mistakes
They say you learn more from your losing trades rather than your winners, and the case of my having gone long at yesterday's close is a great example of oversight on my part.
The RUT/RVX ratio chart is worth keeping an eye going forward (the RVX is the volatility index for the Russell 2000). I had been posting this chart on Twitter and message boards, however, I failed to take my own advice unfortunately.
RUT/RVX Ratio
I'm not much of a technical indicator trader but the idea here is when the ratio touches or exceeds the bollinger band you want to fade the market short term. This ratio is probably more accurate than, say, the VIX/VXV ratio that I am very fond of.
GOALS
One of my goals for 2010 is to increase the efficiency with which I can review prior trades, and one of the ideas I have is to record (for each trade, of course) an audio file with my rationale, feelings, sentiment, emotions, etc about the trade. That way, when I want to access or review prior trades I can also hear the sound of my voice which - to my mind - is a better way of truly understanding yourself as a trader.
It's very easy in this market to get Frustrated with your trades, yourself and Mr. Market but the reality of the matter is you can learn what you've done wrong or you can continue down the road of frustration which ultimate leads to trading failure.
FORECAST
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast
The RUT/RVX ratio chart is worth keeping an eye going forward (the RVX is the volatility index for the Russell 2000). I had been posting this chart on Twitter and message boards, however, I failed to take my own advice unfortunately.
RUT/RVX Ratio
I'm not much of a technical indicator trader but the idea here is when the ratio touches or exceeds the bollinger band you want to fade the market short term. This ratio is probably more accurate than, say, the VIX/VXV ratio that I am very fond of.
GOALS
One of my goals for 2010 is to increase the efficiency with which I can review prior trades, and one of the ideas I have is to record (for each trade, of course) an audio file with my rationale, feelings, sentiment, emotions, etc about the trade. That way, when I want to access or review prior trades I can also hear the sound of my voice which - to my mind - is a better way of truly understanding yourself as a trader.
It's very easy in this market to get Frustrated with your trades, yourself and Mr. Market but the reality of the matter is you can learn what you've done wrong or you can continue down the road of frustration which ultimate leads to trading failure.
FORECAST
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Are We Having Fun Yet?
I'll be quite honest with you...
If this keeps up, December will be my first losing month since March '09. This chop is not exactly my ideal tape and it's particularly my automated systems that are getting the beating rather my own discretionary trading (although that hurt today).
I spent the whole day going back and forth deciding whether we were going to rally or sell off and all that indecisiveness led me to exit shorts at the top and get stopped out on longs near the bottom. I was, however, able to salvage a bit of those losses towards the end but it was negligible in the grand scheme of things.
I expect us to bounce around this area and test the ES 1112 level again by 12/18. I'm long SPY shares from just under ES 1104 - small position though as volatility as really come in.
Intraday ES Forecast
A solid break of ES 1103/1104 and my bias turns bearish.
If this keeps up, December will be my first losing month since March '09. This chop is not exactly my ideal tape and it's particularly my automated systems that are getting the beating rather my own discretionary trading (although that hurt today).
I spent the whole day going back and forth deciding whether we were going to rally or sell off and all that indecisiveness led me to exit shorts at the top and get stopped out on longs near the bottom. I was, however, able to salvage a bit of those losses towards the end but it was negligible in the grand scheme of things.
I expect us to bounce around this area and test the ES 1112 level again by 12/18. I'm long SPY shares from just under ES 1104 - small position though as volatility as really come in.
Intraday ES Forecast
A solid break of ES 1103/1104 and my bias turns bearish.
Let Me Entertain You
One of the supreme mantras that was instilled in me right from the get-go was to always ask myself the following:
God knows how many times I've repeated this.
So let me entertain you then with the following intermediate/long term 'what if' scenario:
SPX (Daily)
Mark words:
The magnitude of the move I expect in 2010 is going to be HUGE.
My plan is as follows:
I'm telling you the move is going to be massive regardless of direction so please be on guard for either of these scenarios. There is way too much potential reward in 2010 to become dogmatic about a particular direction (for an extended period of time that is).
Just some food for thought.
"What if I'm wrong?"
God knows how many times I've repeated this.
So let me entertain you then with the following intermediate/long term 'what if' scenario:
SPX (Daily)
Mark words:
The magnitude of the move I expect in 2010 is going to be HUGE.
My plan is as follows:
- If we rally into January/February 2010, the markets will sell off briskly into late summer 2010 (i.e. I will short)
- If we sell off into January/February 2010, the markets will rally significantly into late summer of 2010 (i.e. I will be buy)
I'm telling you the move is going to be massive regardless of direction so please be on guard for either of these scenarios. There is way too much potential reward in 2010 to become dogmatic about a particular direction (for an extended period of time that is).
Just some food for thought.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Zzzzzzz
Since the market isn't doing much the blog will be very quiet going forward. I'll update my market opinions if/when things pick up.
For the time being I bearish/neutral in my overall delta exposure. I am short from ES 1090 and 1106 and long from ES 1104 in varying quantities and time horizons.
On the bearish side we have the following:
ES Intraday 10/30 Hourly Crossover
Intraday VIX/VXV Ratio on Sell Alert
Hypothetical Intraday ES Forecast
The only bullish thing at the moment is the actual uptrend and possibly a continuation up as per the forecast.
Intraday ES Forecast
Should we manage to rally my target is ES 1120. If we manage to sell off my target is ES 1087.
Buh bye.
For the time being I bearish/neutral in my overall delta exposure. I am short from ES 1090 and 1106 and long from ES 1104 in varying quantities and time horizons.
On the bearish side we have the following:
ES Intraday 10/30 Hourly Crossover
Intraday VIX/VXV Ratio on Sell Alert
Hypothetical Intraday ES Forecast
The only bullish thing at the moment is the actual uptrend and possibly a continuation up as per the forecast.
Intraday ES Forecast
Should we manage to rally my target is ES 1120. If we manage to sell off my target is ES 1087.
Buh bye.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
This Week's Expectation
I would venture to say that the moments during which I have the most clarity (trading-wise) is on weekends when I allow myself to be alone in thought. It's in these moments of complete isolation that I have my best trading ideas/opinions so this is what I have for the upcoming week...
DA BULLS
Generally speaking the bulls will - once again - own the tape so shorting is not recommended (disclosure: I am short but will likely cover or get stopped out on Monday).
EDIT: Will be holding onto shorts for as long as I can as VIX/VXV ratio on major sell alert.
My forecast clearly points up into Wednesday with a target of ESH0 1120.
Intraday ES Forecast (right of vertical green line is transposed forecast data)
Now, I typically don't over analyze the 'why' behind my expectation (i.e. I follow my forecast to the tee), however, in this case I think it is warranted.
With the SPX having reached a print high at 1119.13 (just short of everyone's expectation of 1120), many people were convinced that that was 'close enough' and that we would therefore correct from that level. However, we all know what happens when there is consensus in the market.
SPX Intraday
DA BEARS
Sorry to seem so repetitive, but I continue to point to the GOLD/SILVER ratio as an indication of increasing risk to the downside for equities. If you don't believe me take it from a true market historian - Bob Hoye (Audio file HERE)
GOLD/SILVER Ratio
I wouldn't say it is the most perfect leading indicator but it is something that should worry the bulls if the trend up continues. Notice how it's been in an uptrend since mid-September.
MORE BEARS
In addition to all this we have a plethora of bearish activity, namely:
EUR/USD (notice 10/30 SMA crossover)
Now, some of you might be arguing that we have seen 'bearish' activity for months on end and you would right to a certain extent. However, this is the first time we are seeing this widespread type of action.
On the way up the leadership stocks led for 9 months. The leadership indices also led for 9 months. That's not that happening anymore!
BRADLEY
Say what you will about the Bradley Sideograph but the reality is that it has been a very good way of determining intermediate term tops/bottoms. Should we continue to rally or hold up into January/February 2010 everything I have at my disposal (cycles, forecast, Bradley, etc) points down sharply thereafter.
2010 Bradley Siderograph
However, should we actually sell off into January/February the Bradley siderograph suggests we could rally very sharply. Either way, I will be aboard.
DA BULLS
Generally speaking the bulls will - once again - own the tape so shorting is not recommended (disclosure: I am short but will likely cover or get stopped out on Monday).
EDIT: Will be holding onto shorts for as long as I can as VIX/VXV ratio on major sell alert.
My forecast clearly points up into Wednesday with a target of ESH0 1120.
Intraday ES Forecast (right of vertical green line is transposed forecast data)
Now, I typically don't over analyze the 'why' behind my expectation (i.e. I follow my forecast to the tee), however, in this case I think it is warranted.
With the SPX having reached a print high at 1119.13 (just short of everyone's expectation of 1120), many people were convinced that that was 'close enough' and that we would therefore correct from that level. However, we all know what happens when there is consensus in the market.
SPX Intraday
DA BEARS
Sorry to seem so repetitive, but I continue to point to the GOLD/SILVER ratio as an indication of increasing risk to the downside for equities. If you don't believe me take it from a true market historian - Bob Hoye (Audio file HERE)
GOLD/SILVER Ratio
I wouldn't say it is the most perfect leading indicator but it is something that should worry the bulls if the trend up continues. Notice how it's been in an uptrend since mid-September.
MORE BEARS
In addition to all this we have a plethora of bearish activity, namely:
- EUR/USD weakness (also on SMA 10/30 crossover sell signal)
- Leadership weakness (AAPL, FCX, IWM)
- Move into Utilities, Consumer Staples and Healthcare stocks since November
EUR/USD (notice 10/30 SMA crossover)
Now, some of you might be arguing that we have seen 'bearish' activity for months on end and you would right to a certain extent. However, this is the first time we are seeing this widespread type of action.
On the way up the leadership stocks led for 9 months. The leadership indices also led for 9 months. That's not that happening anymore!
BRADLEY
Say what you will about the Bradley Sideograph but the reality is that it has been a very good way of determining intermediate term tops/bottoms. Should we continue to rally or hold up into January/February 2010 everything I have at my disposal (cycles, forecast, Bradley, etc) points down sharply thereafter.
2010 Bradley Siderograph
However, should we actually sell off into January/February the Bradley siderograph suggests we could rally very sharply. Either way, I will be aboard.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Gold/Silver Ratio Correlation
There is little to comment on these days other than the gold/silver ratio which has confirmed its breakout.
GLD/SLV Ratio (the most 'live' proxy for the Gold/Silver ratio)
Now some of you have been asking what does all this mean for both equities and gold itself?
Let me point you to the following correlation charts (daily, weekly and monthly, respectively). You will notice there is clear inverse correlation of the ratio versus the SPX cash index.
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Daily)
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Weekly)
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Monthly)
So based on this I would be careful on the long side as - to my mind - things starting to confirm a turn in favor of the bears.
GOLD
I continue to believe that gold itself is a great investment long term. It was definitely do for a correction and will likely suffer if/when we correct sharply in equities but intermediate term dips should be bought.
I am currently short SPY shares from 110.74 with stop just above the high of day. I am long 1/2 ESZ9 from 1101.5 (after getting stopped out from 1105 for -1). If 'they' (whoever 'they' are) want to ramp the tape up I'm not going to be caught completely short.
The bulls are getting too predictable.
GLD/SLV Ratio (the most 'live' proxy for the Gold/Silver ratio)
Now some of you have been asking what does all this mean for both equities and gold itself?
Let me point you to the following correlation charts (daily, weekly and monthly, respectively). You will notice there is clear inverse correlation of the ratio versus the SPX cash index.
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Daily)
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Weekly)
Correlation GLD/SLV Ratio vs. SPX (Monthly)
So based on this I would be careful on the long side as - to my mind - things starting to confirm a turn in favor of the bears.
GOLD
I continue to believe that gold itself is a great investment long term. It was definitely do for a correction and will likely suffer if/when we correct sharply in equities but intermediate term dips should be bought.
I am currently short SPY shares from 110.74 with stop just above the high of day. I am long 1/2 ESZ9 from 1101.5 (after getting stopped out from 1105 for -1). If 'they' (whoever 'they' are) want to ramp the tape up I'm not going to be caught completely short.
The bulls are getting too predictable.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
The Good Things In Life
I was going to do a long post on my 'beefs' with what's going on in the world at the moment, but to be honest I live my life with a focus on what is good in the world rather than bad. It's easy to be a critic and complain about the wrongdoings of politicians, climatologists and golfers but there is enough of that going around so - by and large - you will not find that kind of material on this site. However, I will say the following...
What is going on the news these days is truly sad. From supposed Nobel-Prize-worthy U.S. Presidents who believe they can - quite literally - spend their way out of a crisis (again), to climatologists that can't decide on the 'science' of global warming, to bankers who are cashing in massive compensation bonuses at U.S. tax payer expense. Yes, the world seems full of douche bags.
But let me remind you that neither a politician, banker nor government can ever prevent you from succeeding in life. If your focus is on what is bad in the world, your life in many ways will reflect that negativity. Don't believe me? Then ask yourself the following question: what good can possibly come from focusing on it?
I believe (perhaps naively) that all humans are good, but that our conditioning after birth is what defines us - both psychologically and physically - to a large extent. Our parents, grand parents, teachers, guardians, friends, etc all influence us to some degree - good or bad.
What does all this have to do with trading?
Almost everything, but let me continue...
Have you ever met someone who was wealthy in every facet of their life? Someone who exhibited true affluence. Be it financial, spiritual, relational, health - you name it. They had it all. Did you ever feel there was something unique about them even before they spoke?
I once met a gentleman named Rich Thawley who sits on the WFG Chairman's Council and while speaking to him I knew right away I was in very good company. Not only was the man worth $500M but he lived life from such a unique perspective. He always saw the good in every situation. This is a man that quite literally started investing $10 - yes, $10 and managed to grow it through discipline, hard work and a good attitude. These are not my words - they are his.
My point is that you must become the change you want to see. Break the bad habits (conscious and unconscious) that most people are too lazy to deal with. Focus on the good things in your life and the good things in your trading. Focus on what successful traders are doing and saying. Emulation is key. But, it all starts with a reconditioning of the mind.
What is going on the news these days is truly sad. From supposed Nobel-Prize-worthy U.S. Presidents who believe they can - quite literally - spend their way out of a crisis (again), to climatologists that can't decide on the 'science' of global warming, to bankers who are cashing in massive compensation bonuses at U.S. tax payer expense. Yes, the world seems full of douche bags.
But let me remind you that neither a politician, banker nor government can ever prevent you from succeeding in life. If your focus is on what is bad in the world, your life in many ways will reflect that negativity. Don't believe me? Then ask yourself the following question: what good can possibly come from focusing on it?
I believe (perhaps naively) that all humans are good, but that our conditioning after birth is what defines us - both psychologically and physically - to a large extent. Our parents, grand parents, teachers, guardians, friends, etc all influence us to some degree - good or bad.
What does all this have to do with trading?
Almost everything, but let me continue...
Have you ever met someone who was wealthy in every facet of their life? Someone who exhibited true affluence. Be it financial, spiritual, relational, health - you name it. They had it all. Did you ever feel there was something unique about them even before they spoke?
I once met a gentleman named Rich Thawley who sits on the WFG Chairman's Council and while speaking to him I knew right away I was in very good company. Not only was the man worth $500M but he lived life from such a unique perspective. He always saw the good in every situation. This is a man that quite literally started investing $10 - yes, $10 and managed to grow it through discipline, hard work and a good attitude. These are not my words - they are his.
My point is that you must become the change you want to see. Break the bad habits (conscious and unconscious) that most people are too lazy to deal with. Focus on the good things in your life and the good things in your trading. Focus on what successful traders are doing and saying. Emulation is key. But, it all starts with a reconditioning of the mind.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
VERY Bearish...again
To be a truly successful contrarian you must be able to look at the market in simple yet subtle ways.
I think most would agree that throughout the bull run we've experienced since March, there have been numerous calls that "THIS WAS THE TOP" (disclaimer: myself included). However, I find it, not just odd, but extremely odd that for the first time no one - I mean no one - is calling a top at the moment. Go ahead and peruse the financial blogs to convince yourself.
Whether this means anything is completely irrelevant as we all know Mr. Market always has the last word. But I find myself - in part due to this - in the following camp:
Now, some of you may think that this is an easy way to call the top - it's a win/win situation regardless of whether I'm right or wrong. If I am right, I look a hero for the next several years. If I'm wrong, I save myself from looking like another top caller. I like this situation and not for the reasons you think.
Case 1: Suppose this is the top.
If I start out on the right side of the market (i.e. short side) I will not get caught - like most - thinking this is another dip to be bought. At important inflection points, it's the masses that get hurt the most (can you say March 2009?).
Case 2: Suppose we eventually go to new highs
If this ends up being the case, I protect not only my losses but my confidence. If the market decides to go flying up it will do so forcing many, many traders to cover. That could hurt if you are not ready for it.
A WORD ABOUT TECHNICALS
There is a great interview with the famous technician Louise Yamada over at Slope of Hope. One of the more poignant features of the video are her comments regarding the lack of technical confirmations near market tops/bottoms during the 1937/1942 era.
I thought about her comment for a second and I think she has a really good point. If this market is going rollover it could very well do so when most people's indicators are sideways (which they are at the moment). I highly recommend you check it out.
FORECAST AND GOLD
Keep an eye on the GOLD/SILVER ratio as - much like a stock - it looks like it could break out at at any time.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast (right of green line is transposed forecast data)
I think most would agree that throughout the bull run we've experienced since March, there have been numerous calls that "THIS WAS THE TOP" (disclaimer: myself included). However, I find it, not just odd, but extremely odd that for the first time no one - I mean no one - is calling a top at the moment. Go ahead and peruse the financial blogs to convince yourself.
Whether this means anything is completely irrelevant as we all know Mr. Market always has the last word. But I find myself - in part due to this - in the following camp:
Extremely bearish until we surpass SPX 1120
Now, some of you may think that this is an easy way to call the top - it's a win/win situation regardless of whether I'm right or wrong. If I am right, I look a hero for the next several years. If I'm wrong, I save myself from looking like another top caller. I like this situation and not for the reasons you think.
Case 1: Suppose this is the top.
If I start out on the right side of the market (i.e. short side) I will not get caught - like most - thinking this is another dip to be bought. At important inflection points, it's the masses that get hurt the most (can you say March 2009?).
Case 2: Suppose we eventually go to new highs
If this ends up being the case, I protect not only my losses but my confidence. If the market decides to go flying up it will do so forcing many, many traders to cover. That could hurt if you are not ready for it.
A WORD ABOUT TECHNICALS
There is a great interview with the famous technician Louise Yamada over at Slope of Hope. One of the more poignant features of the video are her comments regarding the lack of technical confirmations near market tops/bottoms during the 1937/1942 era.
I thought about her comment for a second and I think she has a really good point. If this market is going rollover it could very well do so when most people's indicators are sideways (which they are at the moment). I highly recommend you check it out.
FORECAST AND GOLD
Keep an eye on the GOLD/SILVER ratio as - much like a stock - it looks like it could break out at at any time.
GOLD/SILVER Ratio
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast (right of green line is transposed forecast data)
Monday, December 7, 2009
Friday, December 4, 2009
Update Part 2
In case you are not on my mail list. Revised target for Monday is ES 1080. Stay short!
Intraday ES Forecast (right of green line is transposed forecast data)
Intraday ES Forecast (right of green line is transposed forecast data)
Action!
First off, if you want to receive intraday updates with respect to the forecast please e-mail at a.grant@ambgtrading.com. These will hopefully help you on days like yesterday/today.
The good news is that we are finally seeing some action in the markets again. However, we continue to trade in a very tight 30-point range.
I was fortunate enough to have exited my short positions at yesterday's close. In this market you must take profits until we finally break out one way or another. Once a trend establishes itself then it's prudent to hold positions a bit longer. The following chart indicates why I exited yesterday.
SPX Intraday
Also what seemed a bit odd to me yesterday was that the JNK/TLT ratio (synthetic representation of credit spreads) actually jumped - which is good for stocks! The bond market is typically considered the 'smart money' so one must heed its hints.
JNK/TLT Ratio
While the forecast suggests we go higher, I'll be honest that I think the risk here is the downside so be very careful! I have no position trades on at the moment. Simply day trading.
Intraday ES Forecast
The good news is that we are finally seeing some action in the markets again. However, we continue to trade in a very tight 30-point range.
I was fortunate enough to have exited my short positions at yesterday's close. In this market you must take profits until we finally break out one way or another. Once a trend establishes itself then it's prudent to hold positions a bit longer. The following chart indicates why I exited yesterday.
SPX Intraday
Also what seemed a bit odd to me yesterday was that the JNK/TLT ratio (synthetic representation of credit spreads) actually jumped - which is good for stocks! The bond market is typically considered the 'smart money' so one must heed its hints.
JNK/TLT Ratio
While the forecast suggests we go higher, I'll be honest that I think the risk here is the downside so be very careful! I have no position trades on at the moment. Simply day trading.
Intraday ES Forecast
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Update
I'm glad to see people garnered a lot benefit out of my last video. Please take the time to implement what I said into your trading.
The project I'm hoping to release sometime next year will focus on areas like those mentioned in the video. It will be a mentorship program completely dedicated to (a) unlearning all the bad habits you have and (b) replacing them with new and more productive ones.
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast
While the 'transposed' forecast has yet to be violated, I've put together a hypothetical (or 'what if' scenario) chart in case we move down. For the record, I am short.
If you are interested in receiving regular intraday updates with respect to the forecast send me an e-mail at a.grant@ambgtrading.com
The project I'm hoping to release sometime next year will focus on areas like those mentioned in the video. It will be a mentorship program completely dedicated to (a) unlearning all the bad habits you have and (b) replacing them with new and more productive ones.
Here is the forecast...
Intraday ES Forecast
While the 'transposed' forecast has yet to be violated, I've put together a hypothetical (or 'what if' scenario) chart in case we move down. For the record, I am short.
If you are interested in receiving regular intraday updates with respect to the forecast send me an e-mail at a.grant@ambgtrading.com
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Colored Commentary
I'm uploading a video to YouTube that discusses a view things. Should be up by tomorrow morning before the opening bell.
Stay tuned.
Updated: One of the videos did not upload overnight so they will be up shortly.
Stay tuned.
Updated: One of the videos did not upload overnight so they will be up shortly.
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