Updated Sunday, January 24, 2010
Please see my updated thoughts on the markets:
For the bullish case: HERE
For the bearish case: HERE (this is my highest probability scenario at the moment)
I created this blog for three primary reasons:
1.- To help those who have lost so much of their investment capital as a result of the financial crisis
2.- To help myself be accountable for my trading results/predictions
3.- Just for fun!
WHAT HOUSING BUBBLE?
The mainstream media, central bankers and highly paid financial analysts had most people convinced in October 2007 that the fundamentals of the world economy were intact, only to realize in early 2009 that they were completely and utterly wrong - a mere year and a half after the fact.
Now in June 2009, we are being told once again that the economy has miraculously recovered from THE largest boom/bust cycle in human history. Why on earth should any of us believe the same group of people who failed to inform the general public back in 2007? The reality is you should not.
TAKING RESPONSIBILITY
"Change starts at home" as the saying goes.
A paradigm has been created, particularly in my generation, to blame others for one's failures. The reality of the matter, however, is realizing that everything that has happened to you is a direct result of your actions and thought processes. You yourself are responsible for the losses incurred during the crisis.
Out of the many positive things that come out of this crisis is my hope for a trend towards self-directed investing. If 2008 is any indication that no one is more vested in your investments than you are and that the Wall/Bay Street bunch are just as accurate as the rest in picking market direction, this should provide you with incentive to take charge of your financial future.
INVESTMENT THEMES
The $64,000 question is 'What do I invest in now?'. I will tackle this question on an ongoing basis and hopefully provide decent ideas that some of you can take home. I don't expect to be right 100% of the time (remember that successful trading/investing is NOT about being right - it is about finding and executing a sound methodology and sticking it to it).
I will accompany my opinions with my own portfolio percentage allocations for full transparency and disclosure. I do put my money where my mouth is.
AMBG Trading
Thursday, January 1, 2009
FORECAST SUBSCRIPTION(S)
Successful trading/investing requires an edge.
Whether you trade...
AMBG Trading provides you very (and I mean 'very') unique market forecast charts for many commodities, indexes and stocks.
Now, let me say the following:
Whether you trade...
- S&P500 / DOW Jones / Nasdaq Indexes
- ES / NQ Futures
- Gold / Silver / Copper / Crude Oil Futures
- T-Bonds Futures
- Coffee / Wheat / Soybean / Sugar Futures
- RIMM, GOOG, AAPL...or any other stock, commodity or index
AMBG Trading provides you very (and I mean 'very') unique market forecast charts for many commodities, indexes and stocks.
Now, let me say the following:
ES Performance
Last Updated: February 24, 2010 9:00am PST
Please click HERE for a description of the public ES system.
ES Performance spreadsheet: HERE
1 ES Point = $50USD
Individual P/L will vary depending how many contracts you trade.
To view the performance spreadsheet in *.xls format, you'll need to register with Scribd. All you need is an e-mail address and password - pretty simple.
2009 Charts - HERE
January 2010 Charts - HERE
February 2010 MTD Results
Cumulative Results (June '09 - February '10)
INTRADAY CHARTS
February 1, 2010
February 2, 2010
February 3, 2010
February 4, 2010
February 5, 2010
February 8, 2010
February 9, 2010
February 10, 2010
February 11, 2010
February 12, 2010
February 16, 2010
February 17, 2010
February 18, 2010
February 19, 2010
February 22, 2010
February 23, 2010
Please click HERE for a description of the public ES system.
ES Performance spreadsheet: HERE
1 ES Point = $50USD
Individual P/L will vary depending how many contracts you trade.
To view the performance spreadsheet in *.xls format, you'll need to register with Scribd. All you need is an e-mail address and password - pretty simple.
2009 Charts - HERE
January 2010 Charts - HERE
February 2010 MTD Results
Cumulative Results (June '09 - February '10)
INTRADAY CHARTS
February 1, 2010
February 2, 2010
February 3, 2010
February 4, 2010
February 5, 2010
February 8, 2010
February 9, 2010
February 10, 2010
February 11, 2010
February 12, 2010
February 16, 2010
February 17, 2010
February 18, 2010
February 19, 2010
February 22, 2010
February 23, 2010
ES System
My trading results have always been quite personal, but after much reflection, I think it would be interesting to post - on a continuous basis - the results of my one of my systems on the E-Mini SP500 Futures Contract (ES).
There are several reasons I have decided to do this, the most important of which is simply to keep my own head in check. I believe in the power of telling others about one's goals as a way of staying accountable. Anyone who trades the markets on a regular basis understands the significance of this last point.
Performance results can be viewed here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
METHODOLOGY
A few points about the system:
1.- OVERALL APPROACH
The general gist of the system is to identify oversold or overbought situations via RSI(9) and execute contra trend trades. A black box system like this utterly useless as any experienced trader will probably tell you.
So, for confirmation I look for things like positive/negative divergences in the RSI, bottoming or topping candle patterns and support/resistance trend lines. It's really that simple.
I hope by way of example, the methodology becomes more clear. I plan on annotating my daily charts with text to explain the rationale behind every trade.
2.- MONEY MANAGEMENT
No system, no matter how robust, can survive without a solid money management system.
Any on any given trade I risk no more than 3 ES points (i.e. $150/contract). This number changes based on the previous trading day and pre-market volatility. On slow, non-volatile, low volume days this number is usually around 2 points.
Profits are usually taken either:
- When I am stopped out
- On a 9-point cover
To those of you wondering 'Why 9 points?': It's been my observation that intraday impulse waves are usually in the vicinity of 9 points.
Stops are placed below certain simple moving averages or pivot points, and will also vary depending on how volatile the trading session is.
3.- TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
The topic of trading psychology has been written on extensively, but the investment education industry (for the most part) usually leaves this until the very end of their curriculum. Only through the school of hard knocks do most traders/investors finally realize that their results have nothing to do with the market. In fact, 100% of your results is an internal, self awareness of who you are as an investor/trader.
Trading is a business of probabilities - it's not about being right or wrong (it took me far too long to learn this). The more you trade, the more you allow the probabilities of your system to work in your favor. To this end, I never take a trade that does not give me a significant edge. If there is no set up, there is NO trade.
The trading world really opens up the possibility to endless riches if you can develop the proper mentality when trading. So that means, no messing around with stops, taking EVERY trade that your system identifies and NO over leveraging.
4.- NOT MECHANICAL
Admittedly, there is an element of discretion involved. This discretion is really the art of trading. It's what most traders refer to as a 'feeling about the market' and it comes with experience.
The discretion will apply to things like how far trailing stops should be placed from the current price action and whether to trade at all. There are days, such as options expiration, where even if a signal is triggered, I will sit out.
5.- Trading decisions are made based on intraday 3min-bar charts.
6.- The only indicators I use are an RSI(9) and a few simple/exponential moving averages.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, the purpose of going through this process is not just to benefit the author of this blog, but to help those who are struggling in their trading endeavors. I am more than happy to answer further questions. You can contact me at a.grant@ambgtrading.com
There are several reasons I have decided to do this, the most important of which is simply to keep my own head in check. I believe in the power of telling others about one's goals as a way of staying accountable. Anyone who trades the markets on a regular basis understands the significance of this last point.
Performance results can be viewed here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
METHODOLOGY
A few points about the system:
1.- OVERALL APPROACH
The general gist of the system is to identify oversold or overbought situations via RSI(9) and execute contra trend trades. A black box system like this utterly useless as any experienced trader will probably tell you.
So, for confirmation I look for things like positive/negative divergences in the RSI, bottoming or topping candle patterns and support/resistance trend lines. It's really that simple.
I hope by way of example, the methodology becomes more clear. I plan on annotating my daily charts with text to explain the rationale behind every trade.
2.- MONEY MANAGEMENT
No system, no matter how robust, can survive without a solid money management system.
Any on any given trade I risk no more than 3 ES points (i.e. $150/contract). This number changes based on the previous trading day and pre-market volatility. On slow, non-volatile, low volume days this number is usually around 2 points.
Profits are usually taken either:
- When I am stopped out
- On a 9-point cover
To those of you wondering 'Why 9 points?': It's been my observation that intraday impulse waves are usually in the vicinity of 9 points.
Stops are placed below certain simple moving averages or pivot points, and will also vary depending on how volatile the trading session is.
3.- TRADING PSYCHOLOGY
The topic of trading psychology has been written on extensively, but the investment education industry (for the most part) usually leaves this until the very end of their curriculum. Only through the school of hard knocks do most traders/investors finally realize that their results have nothing to do with the market. In fact, 100% of your results is an internal, self awareness of who you are as an investor/trader.
Trading is a business of probabilities - it's not about being right or wrong (it took me far too long to learn this). The more you trade, the more you allow the probabilities of your system to work in your favor. To this end, I never take a trade that does not give me a significant edge. If there is no set up, there is NO trade.
The trading world really opens up the possibility to endless riches if you can develop the proper mentality when trading. So that means, no messing around with stops, taking EVERY trade that your system identifies and NO over leveraging.
4.- NOT MECHANICAL
Admittedly, there is an element of discretion involved. This discretion is really the art of trading. It's what most traders refer to as a 'feeling about the market' and it comes with experience.
The discretion will apply to things like how far trailing stops should be placed from the current price action and whether to trade at all. There are days, such as options expiration, where even if a signal is triggered, I will sit out.
5.- Trading decisions are made based on intraday 3min-bar charts.
6.- The only indicators I use are an RSI(9) and a few simple/exponential moving averages.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Lastly, the purpose of going through this process is not just to benefit the author of this blog, but to help those who are struggling in their trading endeavors. I am more than happy to answer further questions. You can contact me at a.grant@ambgtrading.com
ES SYSTEM LEASING
I am finally making available my position trading system on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures contract (ES).
If you are interested in this system after viewing the following presentation please do not hesitate to e-mail me at a.grant@ambgtrading.com.
I am here to help!
Click HERE for Freedom system statistics updated to October 31, 2011.
The statistics in the document above assume:
Click HERE for a copy of the Power Point presentation.
If you are interested in this system after viewing the following presentation please do not hesitate to e-mail me at a.grant@ambgtrading.com.
I am here to help!
Click HERE for Freedom system statistics updated to October 31, 2011.
The statistics in the document above assume:
- Initial Capital $25,000 (1 ES contract)
- Monthly Returns are on Initial Capital ($25,000)
- Returns include $7 RT Commissions + Slippage
- Model years: 2005 and 2006
Click HERE for a copy of the Power Point presentation.
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