Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Interesting Ratios

Two interesting ratios I have come across (courtesy of Bob Hoye) are the GOLD/SILVER and JNK/TLT ratios. Both are a very good (synthetic) measures of risk aversion/appetite - they are synthetic credit spreads in essence.

Both seem to be pointing to a correction very soon (how deep that correction, who knows). What I find interesting is that despite the markets being up yesterday, both of these ratios indicated the rally was weaker than the price action would suggest (GOLD/SILVER ratio up and JNK/TLT ratio down).

GOLD/SILVER Ratio



JNK/TLT Ratio



I started entering short positions today when ES hit 953. I expect a pullback into Monday/Tuesday, as per forecast. I'll add a little bit to the position if we manage to push higher into tomorrow. Overall, position is not very large. I'm saving that for August 7.

EDIT: I covered those short call spreads because I'm not sure how high we go between now and tomorrow's close. Just going to sit on hands until tomorrow.

Note: Charts are as of yesterday's close.
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