Part of the gig of being a trader involves coping with and managing personal issues while keeping one's trading psychology in check.
The past couple of weeks have been one of those periods where things seem to deviate from what is normal.
Not only has my public ES system flat lined over the past week but my stress levels seems to have gone up, I feel a lot more tired than usual and today I had the mother of all weird occurrences - I got really cold all of a sudden and started convulsing 3 hours before the close. I'm fine now but, man, strange indeed wouldn't you say?
What is interesting, however, is that these strange things have usually occurred near major inflection points - I kid you not, I can't make this up. What's even more peculiar is that at market bottoms, I usually have a week or so of bad trading and at tops my trading results flat line. I can't explain it but it's the honest truth.
2.- SPX EXPECTATIONS
Well, we managed to touch 900 before 960 on the ES contract as per my comments a week ago - Lines In Sandboxes. The $64,000 question at the moment is how high will the correction to this week's sell off go?
Today's small change in the McClellan Oscillator (seen below) suggests a large price move over the coming days. My strong suspicion is we will see a significant rally into next week and possibly test ES 970 - yes, that's not a typo.
A rally is likely in the works based on a simple 60-day/120-min chart I use to complement my position trading. As you can see a rally is likely going to occur any time the RSI(9) reaches the 30 area. Disregard all the trend lines, etc...just focus on the green rectangles.
Also, a forecasting technique I have used for several years supports this as well as seen by the chart below. Incidentally, I will not disclose the rationale behind the forecast so please don't ask. I may post these forecasts from time to time.
Please note, however, this forecast CAN BE WRONG! So, don't go and load the boat up on calls expecting the market to blast up, but probabilities (even not using the aforementioned forecast) still suggest a rally.
