I'm Here!

I just wanted to touch base to let you know I'm still here. The number of posts have improved significantly over the December period but I know I could do better now that things have picked up for the better.

That being said, I am very, very involved in my own trading these days as I have very high hopes for 2010.

WEBINAR

At the beginning of the year - Changing Market Conditions - I talked about hosting regular webinars throughout the year. To get an idea of how many people would like to attend, could you please vote in the poll at the top right of the blog? Thanks.

FORECAST

If you would like to receive intraday updates with respect to the forecast send me an e-mail at a.grant@ambgtrading.com. I give my most up-to-date comments on the markets 3X per day in these updates (forecast charts included.)

Intraday ES Forecast

Thank You Mr. Bear

Bears continue to own the tape but I advise being careful if you are positioned heavily short. Short is OK but not heavily so. Not only are we pushing the extremes in breadth but we are also nearing my February 2, 2010 date.

I exited virtually all my short positions on today's open which may have been a bit premature but I've learned to not want to time the exact bottom. There are various indications that we may pause around these levels. That being said, the risk is definitely to the downside until it isn't.

Here are a couple of charts....

McClellan Oscillator


SPY (Positive Divergence on RSI(9) - 120min timeframe)



USD/CAD (Positive Divergence on RSI(9) - 120min timeframe)



GDX (Positive Divergence on RSI(9) - 120min timeframe)


Note: GDX has been somewhat of a leading indicator.

However, despite the technicals (a) the trend is down and (b) the forecast also says down.

Intraday ES Forecast


If the scaling is correct, we could see a print of ES 1057 by February 2.

Overall the week was probably one of my best to date. A had a few blunders here and there but by and large I stuck to my rules, and more importantly, I didn't try to catch a falling knife - other than today ;) ...I am human after all!

iDon'tKnow

This is what I think about the iPad:

Lessons From The Past

If you're not practicing the habit of reviewing previous trades, price patterns, etc you are hindering your trading. By developing this habit you'll start to pick up on the nuances in your methodology. The following is such an example of a nuance in the forecast...

REVISITING THE PAST

A few weeks ago - December 17, 2009 to be precise - I came across the following scenario whereby the scaling of the 'regular' forecast seemed to be 'off' as of the close of that day (i.e. the fit was not good). It turns out it was 'off' for a reason - namely, that the 'What If' chart had started to take effect. Hopefully that makes sense.


Intraday ES Forecast - December 17, 2009 ('What If' chart)


As you can see, the price action the very next day (December 18, 2009) matched both the scaling and direction of the 'What If' chart very well.

Today we're seeing something very similar. Below is the 'regular' forecast:

Intraday ES Forecast


And here is the 'What If' chart:

Intraday ES Forecast - 'What If'


If the same pattern is to repeat itself going into tomorrow we would see:

• A sell off to ES 1075
  
• A strong rebound back to ES 1100

It will be interesting to see if this unfolds.


GOLD/SILVER RATIO

The Gold/Silver ratio is on a MASSIVE sell alert having now breached the 65 resistance area so holding a core short position continues to be prudent trading.

GLD/SLV Ratio (Intraday)


GLD/SLV Ratio (Daily)


Here is Bob Hoye talking about the GOLD/SILVER ratio as well as various other topics - a must listen indeed: HERE

Update

Nice move!

Intraday ES Forecast